The hard, fully-quantum disagreement between two observers reduces, at leading order with a controlled mean-square error, to the classical Shannon disagreement of the bulk-marginal diagonals. The result that makes everything downstream rigorous rather than model-dependent. It is what Paper II was missing.
The headline of Paper III. For Haar-random bulk states, the difference between the two observers’ von Neumann entropies and the Shannon entropy difference of their bulk-marginal diagonals is provably small in mean square – one power of below the signal variance.
Why this is the headline. Paper II established that the averaged observer state collapses to the diagonal of the bulk marginal. It did not establish that the entropy – a non-linear functional – is therefore governed by the diagonal. The entropy-replacement theorem is the missing step. It is what Paper II was missing.
Shape of the proof. Expand the true entropy around the bulk-marginal diagonal. The error splits into two pieces: an off-diagonal part (coming from coherences thrown away by the diagonal model) and a diagonal-to-bulk part (the difference between the actual reduced diagonal and the bulk-marginal diagonal we replace it with). Both must be – one power of below the signal variance .
The full Haar-class proof is unconditional. The product-class version is conditional on a parallel replacement principle in a regime where probabilities are concentrated; that conditional is named in plain sight on Result III.